V.G. Barsky1

DYNAMIC MODEL OF BIOSPHERE

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PROJECT OF THE INTERNATIONAL PROGRAM

 

 

 

INTRODUCTION

1. Methods and ways of presenting Dynamic Model of Biosphere

2.METHODS AND WAYS OF CREATING A DMB

3. GOALS of DMB creation

4. Tasks for organizational period

5. TaSks for the second (main) stage of development of a DMB and utilisation of a DMB

 

6. EXPECTED RESULTS OF DEVELOPMENT AND UTILISATION OF A DMB

7. Perception of a DMB

8. Initiative group

9. Offers of cooperation

10. Contact information

Appendices

Appendix 1. List of scientific disciplines which can be useful in studying biosphere

Appendix 2. DMB's place in the development management system

Appendix 3. Illustrations

Appendix 4 .Warranty

 

FRONT PAGE

 

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INTRODUCTION

 

The second half of the XX century has amazingly broadened our perception of the humans place and role in the biosphere. After coming out into space, it has become clear how fragile life in our home (which is not at all that big) called Earth is, and how great and dangerous human power is. It has become vital to learn about changes in our living environment. We need to establish and obey rules of living, ecological imperative, limit some sectors of the economics, which are involved in the extraction of natural recourses.

This new knowledge has led to development of various international programs and creation of international organizations, which study global and regional changes and produce international agreements, declarations and other documents that limit usage of natural resources. Permanent acting governmental and public bodies have been created to monitor and control the state and conditions of different parts of the biosphere.

In spite of deep economic crisis and resulting from it voluntary withdrawal of scientists and engineers from their major field of activity, as well as immigration, Russia still remains the worlds center for intellectual capital. To face the truth, it has problems in coordination and in other managerial functions. However, coordination is also a weak point of many international programs, which at present account to about fifty.

Russian academy of natural sciences in the first months of the new century has organized a department of Problems of studying the biosphere and began project development of an international program called Dynamic model of biosphere(DMB). We believe that DMB creation with the help of newest information technologies will allow us to eliminate the coordination problem and make all projects (completed and those still in progress) in different parts of the world accessible to everyone. The purpose of the program is determined by its goals:

Y       Systematization of the data about the universe, space, Earth, processes of global and regional significance

Y       Discovery and description of laws of existence of natural and anthropogenic systems of different organizational levels

Y       Search and evaluation of accessibility and effectiveness of different ways of preserving biosphere and its subsystems

Y       Elaboration and modification of rules and norms of behavior, codex of a citizen of the Earth

Y       Development of a system of values, interests and necessities that corresponds to the ethics of sustainable existence of biosphere and development of civilization.

Y       Grounding methods of advance prevention, mitigation and /or elimination of possible cataclysms, natural and technogenic disasters, crisiss etc.

Y       Making multi-aspect ecology an integral part of production and consumption.

Y       Facilitation of interaction between confessional, scientific, educational, industrial and other organizations which are concerned with biosphere related problems.

Y       Expansion of the system of specially protected territories (biospheraries) and monuments of historical and cultural heritage.

Y       Making ecology an integral part of education and up-brining.

Y       Evaluation of the level of current knowledge and preparation of a concept and strategy of further studies of the biosphere.

Y       Search for new forms of mentality, which will meet the demands of multi-dimensional and multi-polar biosphere and its super complex subsystems.

The particularity of DMB program consists in studying biosphere as a whole, represented in different hypostasis (fig.1), important for achieving adopted goals. We anticipate involvement in the program and use of materials provided by various governmental and non-governmental organizations and people on the basis of mutually beneficial cooperation. Following is the representation of the main principles of the program.

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1. Methods and ways of presenting Dynamic Model of Biosphere

 

Y    We suggest that DMB creation should take into consideration

Y     end-users and developers, who are interested in broadening and applying the knowledge about the biosphere

Y     different preferences and different mentality levels (from school children to academics)

Y     tasks that end-users are facing

Y     of long-term strategies of sustainable development of civilizations.

Therefore, DMB can be developed, demonstrated and utilized using the following approaches:

1.1. Specialized (from the point of view of a particular knowledge sector, Appendix 1).

1.2. Encyclopedic (representation of articles in alphabetical, chronological or other order or by problem and subject matter).

1.3. Video-photographical (in particular in the form of films and slide-shows).

1.4. Audio graphical (recording of lectures and conferences).

1.5. Dialogic (in the form of friendly interface).

1.6. Information inquiry (who, where, when, who for, what, what has been done, created etc, etc.).

1.7. Resources and components (water, soil, forest, flora and fauna, socium, technosphere, atmosphere, lithosphere, world ocean and others.).

1.8. Geo-informational (subject maps and reference books).

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2.METHODS AND WAYS OF CREATING A DMB

 

We are suggesting at least 8 different ways of creating a DMB

2.1. Organizing studies of biosphere with the help of existing and newly established groups as well as individual researches based on agreements with coordination center (Fig.2).

2.2. Using free published materials (information).

2.3. Synthesis and analysis of research initiatives that have been started earlier.

2.4. Doing research in the libraries, archives and on the World Wide Web.

2.5. Practical utilization of DMB models.

2.6. Alternative projects (on a competitive basis) of selected methods of biosphere research.

2.7. Experimental research in biospheraries and other modeled territories.

2.8. Regular scientific seminars, forums and electronic conferences.

 

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3. GOALS of DMB creation

v   Systematization of data on global biosphere processes, universe, space, earth, phenomena of global and regional importance; describing the laws of existence of natural and anthropogenic systems of different organizational levels and the danger of damaging these systems.

v   Analysis of the reasons of low effectiveness of earlier accepted international agreements. Explanation of recommendations on preservation of the biosphere and its subsystems.

v   Elaboration and amendment of rules and norms of behavior, a codex of a citizen of the Earth.

v   Formation and correction of a system of values, interests, necessities, corresponding to ethics of sustainable existence of biosphere and development of civilization.

 

 

v   Identification of early signs of generation and development of natural and technogenic disasters, cataclysms, crisises etc.

v   Systemized and accessible for literate people representation of knowledge and experience of interaction of humans and nature. This interaction is seen in organizational forms and images such as civilization, ethnos, social groups, social minorities, economic sectors, transnational, regional, national and other forms of production.

v   Evaluation of projects and programs of incorporating ecology into production and consumption. This sphere includes technologies, forms and volumes of production of products and services, consumer goods, materials and substances, information, scientific research and engineering works, norms and regulations, services etc.

v   Foundation and consolidation of confessional, scientific, educational, industrial and other organizations that are concerned with biosphere related problems.

v   Explanation of the necessity of developing a system of specially protected territories (biospheraries) and monuments of historical and cultural heritage.

v   Preparation of programs of incorporating ecology into education and up-brining.

v   Finding out and evaluation of the importance of studying unknown objects, processes and phenomena.

v   Search for new forms of mentality, which will meet the demands of multi-dimensional and multi-polar biosphere and its super complex subsystems (from one single cell to entire civilization).

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4. Tasks for organizational period (approximately 5 month period)

 

4.1. Develop a concept, a strategy and a program plan for DMB creation, which will include principles of recruitment and forming productive teams in the Russian Federation and abroad.

v  Explain organizational, functional, problematic and territorial structure of a DMB.

v  Discuss and improve the concept, strategy and program plan of DMB creation project (these problems are already solved).

 

4.2. Set up basis for long term support and supplies (organizational, financial, informational, legal, scientific, technological, technical, personnel etc.)

 

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5. TaSks for the second (main) stage of development of a DMB(anticipated duration - 3 years)

 

5.1. Creation of a database on biosphere.

5.2. Creation of a software support and interactive exchange between databases.

5.3. Verification and approbation of DMB and evaluation of accuracy of the forecasts based on long-term monitoring of geo-physical processes.

5.4. Comparison of existing global models.

5.6. Preparation of recommendations and special sub-programs in accordance with p. 4.1.

 

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6. EXPECTED RESULTS OF DEVELOPMENT AND UTILISATION OF A DMB

 

6.1 More complete consideration of biospheric factors in systems and decisions making procedures for social, economic and technical problems.

6.2 Recommendations for correction of concepts, strategies, programs and plans of development of countries, regions, ethnoses, economical sectors, large firms etc.

6.3 More accurate estimations of the scale of natural and antropogenic catastrophes and of the level of their biospheric and technogenic danger (risk and damages).

6.4. Substantiation of the system of actions for preserving and increasing stability of ecosystems, decreasing antropogenic stress, ethnical, religions and other social conflicts.

6.5. Informational support of physical and juridical persons management decisions at all levels of the hierarchy, in order to take into account biospheric factors.

6.6. Creation of an interdisciplinary language (through computer programming) permitting to communicate and discuss biosphere preservation problems.

6.7. Recommendations on perspective directions and co-ordination of the work and functions of countries, institutions and organisations, involved in scientific research and design, related to biosphere as the whole and to its separate subsystems.

6.8. Recommendations on implementation of new technologies, inventions and discoveries, which would decrease the danger of antropogenic influence over the nature.

6.9. Foundation of a consulting service on incorporating biospheric factors in management.

6.10. Description of the dynamics of extreme geophysical and antropogenic influences and indication of high risk regions.

6.11. Correction of educational, training and cultural programs (i.e. Culture of the World program), edition of reference books, textbooks, methodical documents etc.

6.12. Creation of citizens of the Earth (creators of noosphere) code of behaviour.

 

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7. PERCEPTION OF A DMB

 

 

 

DMB is a non-traditional model, which has limited but expanding multitude of essences and sub-models. Each of them relates to a defined function of DMB and permits to understand what results can be obtained from each of 16 existing essences ( fig.1 fig. 2)

DMB is a rather complex, multi-meaning and initially subjective notion. Each of its users will be able to discover some sense useful for him/her. The polygon star of biosphere in the centre of fig. 1 and 2 is a grey box, which is full of mysteries (analogy with the black box in cybernetics). It deserves to be known in a much higher degree than it is now.

The organisational base of DMB is its integral part (fig. 2). Each block named centre must become the focus of intersection and analysis for research and design, which have been carried out for a long time in many countries but without necessary co-ordination (especially in Russia).

The centre will cooperate with scientific periphery based on the well-proved principle of unequal barter: you give your part to us and receive the whole thing back from us". The information will be presented in a form suitable for review and understanding. Each centre will be providing knowledge about certain aspects of the biosphere, representing the purpose for which this centre was created. Each centres knowledge will be useful, or even vitally necessary, for all the other centres. All centres will be connected to each other, and each will have equal access to the information in other centres as well as provide access to its own information for all participants of the program.

 

In conclusion, DMB is a system of models and specialised information on biosphere and at the same time it realises the function of organising collective work, processes of transformation of information in knowledge and in understanding the biosphere as a single whole.

 

Fig.3 shows the place of the model in decision-making system. Every cell of the big table can become a place of application of knowledge, which is obtained through DMB. Apart from merely natural processes, phenomena and objects; attention should be drawn to objects and processes of development of techno-sphere on different levels of its organisation.

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8. Initiative group

 

 

To substantiate and develop a DMB a small initiative group has been created on the contract basis as a part of Russian Academy of Natural Sciences. The tasks of this group are:

v     to prepare the conception of DMB (see par. 2),

v     to elaborate the project of international Program,

v     to draw constituent documents,

v     to define organizations and persons, who could participate in DMB.

 

Once the international non-governmental DMB organization is created, the initiative group will stop its existence, and its members would be free to work in one of the 16 departments of the DMB.

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9. Offers of cooperation

 

 

 

This letter should be considered as an invitation to collaboration in any form and in any area named above. All comments and suggestions are welcome.

 

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10. Contact information

 

 

Project manager - Barsky Vilen , Academician of Russian Academy of Natural Sciences (RANS),Moscow, tel./fax 7-095-1153047, e-mail: velen@comail.ru .

 

Scientific secretary - Viskov, Vladimir, Corresponding member of RANS, Moscow, tel. 7-095-1410650, Fax 7-095-9305509 e-mail: viskov@wdcb.ru .

 

Technical Secretary- Bogdanova Svetlana, Moscow, tel. 7-095-314288410.

e-mail: bogdansa@mtu-net.ru . biosphere@ihst.ru . 314 2884.

 

WEB-master - Bedenko Aleksandr, Moscow, e-mail: domino22@mtu-net.ru . biosphere@ihst.ru . 701 1532.

 

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Appendices

Appendix 1. List of scientific disciplines which can be useful in studying biosphere

v    Architecture and urban planning

v      Astrophysics. Cosmology

v      Biology (including Hydro-biology and ichthyology). Genetics Biophysics. Biochemistry. Bio-geochemistry. Geography (physical, economic, medical and others).

v    Geology. Geophysics. Hydrology. Climatology. Gnosiology, Hermeneutic (development of perceptions and knowledge about the cognoscibility).

v    Diplomacy. Diplomatic relations.

v    Reserves and national park studies.

v    Informatics. Informaciology.

v    History (as a chronicle, biospheric events).

v       Cybernetics. Computer programming. Artificial intellect.

v    Criminology.

v    Forestry (including forest science).

v    Logic.

v    Mathematics. Modelling.

v    Medicine. Sanitary hygiene

v    Management.

v    Social science

v      Oceanography and oceanology.

v    Paleonthology.

v    Political science

v      Soil science

v      Personal and socio psychology, small groups dynamics. Behavioural science

v    Synergetics. System technique System analysis

v    Sociology.

v      Axiology (science on value)

v      Technologies (including telecommunications and other types of communication).

v    Phylosophy.

v    Ecology.

v    Economics.

v    Power engineering.

v    Ethnography.

v    Ecological expertise.

v    Jurisprudence. International law.

v   Linguistics.

v    Others (new and unknown).

Appendix 2

DMB's place in the development management system

 

At present biospheric problems begin to be taken into account when sustainable development strategies are being developed. It is mainly a result of reports, based on the analysis of global models, made in different countries after the foundation of Rome Club. However, limitations posed by the biosphere must be taken into account on the all levels of management. In the frame of DMB program it is suggested to consider the influence of biospheric problems as well as recommendations received in the process of resolving these problems on:

In fact every elementary rectangle (whicsh are more than 80 on the fig 3.) should get in the sphere of positive influence of DMB. We consider it as being the main purpose of the project. It is possible that for various organizational and financial reasons, projected scales will only be reached in the process of foundation and development program. We are expecting that all countries in the Earth will gradually join the program. It is inevitable, but it may not happen so soon. The declared understanding of the importance of the collaboration in order to rescue everyone and all of us and achieve sustainable development of the all countries, already gives some results. There are practical forms of cooperation, wide scientific contacts in the field of sustainable development, presentations of projects, technologies, examples of successful implementations of recommendations in different countries, in different spheres of economy, socium, engineering, settling etc.

However, we believe that from the very beginning it is very important to have a vision of the entire project competed (even though such project by definition may not ever be completed), in order to ensure its full functional development. At the moment our project is similar to genetic program of development of an embrion that has just appeared. We would like to see the such multitude of biosphere institutes, just like that among institutes of physics, mathematics, biology, geography, culture and so on. There are hundreds of such institutes, but there is not even one institute of biosphere. We hope, that our project will make it happen. We must remember that the level of complexity of biospheric problems is superior to that of any other problems.

 

Appendix 3 Illustrations

fig.1 fig.2 fig.3

 

 

 

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Appendix 4 Warranty

 

 

Due to possible errors that might occur during transmission, we have included all the text from figures 1-3 below.

 

Fig. 1. Presentations of biosphere, considered in Program. 

 

1. Space-time (sphere) of life.

2. The life itself.

3. Ecosystem.

4. Cradle and environment of civilizations and ecosystems.

5. Living organism.

6. Geological force. The environment where evolutional and bifurcationa processes go on.

7. Generator of matter, energy and information, base of resources.

8. Accumulator and distributor of matter, energy and information.

9. Highest stage of matter evolution.

10. Mosaic of ideas.

11. Religious and other ideas.

12. Object of observation and research.

13. Object of guarding and source of danger.

14. Integrity and organised manner of matter.

15. Miracle and riddle of the nature.

16. Part of planet Earth.

 

 

Fig. 2. Structure of DMB Program

 

1. Constantly acting international program.

2. Reference-information system.

3. The museum of knowledge on biosphere.

4. The system of computer programs- dynamic models.

5. Centre of translation in working languages.

6. Centre of publications.

7. Centre of biospheric culture and ethics.

8. Centre of sustainable development.

9. Centre of educational textbooks and programs.

10. Centre of improvement of qualification.

11. Centre of biospheric problems.

12. Centre of biospheric technologies.

13. Juridical centre.

14. Scientific and constructors works on biosphere co-ordination centre.

15. Centre of geophysical prognosis's.

16. International non-governmental organizations

Fig.3. Place of DMB in the system of development of civilisations and countries.

 

1. Guarded and investigated objects of the biosphere:

Continents; World ocean, seas; natural geographic zones; lithosphere; atmosphere; climate; water basins; flora; fauna; soils; ecosystems; landscapes; memorials of nature; unique objects; biospheraries; scientific and cultural centres; space; whole biosphere; hazards; UN;

Experts; branch, sector of economy; technologies; business; civilisation; country, region; nation; people; ethnoses; tribe; family; personality.

 

2. Working out ( as results):

DMB; concepts; strategies; programs; plans; business-plans; norms and rules; charters; codes; projects; information systems; matters; substances; service; wares ; secondary raw materials; currency; laws, regulations; declarations ,arguments, charters; methods, instructions; scientific and design elaboration's; technologies.

 

3. Procedures:

court; punishment; appeal; contradiction, negotiations; prognosis's; elaboration of software; bankrupt; interrogate; audit, insurance; election. Appointment; accommodation of means of production and people; education; projects and investigations; rate setting; examination.

 

4. Purposes of development:

ecological; political; nearest; for the all time; economical; social; medium-term; long-tsserm.

Contents Appendicys

 

 

 



1 Manager of the project